Games of chance are not games of randomness; they're games of uncertainty. The universe operates on strict principles of cause and effect. The way the dice strike the table when thrown determines, through the laws of physics, precisely what numbers will fall. Our problem is not randomness, but human inability to measure and reproduce those physics in real-time.
Imagine a demon with senses and intellect attuned to precisely measure and calculate the fall of the dice, and whose body can control their movement as they exit his hand. Such a demon would always win at dice.
Poker also is not random. Before the dealer reveals any card, the precise order of the cards in the deck is fixed. Winning is about how you play the cards you are given. You can beat fate by bluffing, by having more courage or virtue than your enemies. This does not mean, however, that one should always rush into battle despite the predictions of the oracles. Often the best way to beat fate is to fold.
Saturday, October 17, 2009
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